NHKマイルカップは、東京競馬場の芝1600mで行われる競馬のG1レースです。今年は、朝日杯フューチュリティステークスを無敗で制したドルチェモアが中心として注目されていましたが、前哨戦のニュージーランドTで初黒星を喫しました。そのため、混戦の様相が見られます。
そこで、過去の優勝馬のデータを分析して、今年の有力馬を探っていくことが重要です。過去10年の優勝馬のうち、朝日杯FS出走馬が5頭、桜花賞出走馬が2頭いました。マイルG1の流れを経験している馬が有利になる可能性があるため、マイルG1で4着以内に入ったことがある馬を注目することができます。
今年の出走馬で条件に該当するのは、朝日杯FS優勝馬のドルチェモアと同2着のダノンタッチダウンです。彼らは前走で大敗しましたが、叩き2戦目の上積みが見込めそうです。また、マイルG1経験のある馬で注目されるのは、エエヤンやオオバンブルマイ、シングザットソングなどです。牝馬も優勢と言われており、混戦模様の中で注目度が高まっています。
Translation:
The NHK Mile Cup will be held at Tokyo Racecourse on May 7, 2023. Dolce More, who won the 2-year-old G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes undefeated, was expected to be the favorite, but surprisingly suffered his first defeat in the New Zealand Trophy, a prelude to the NHK Mile Cup. The race is shaping up to be a close competition, with the likes of Eeyan, Arlington Cup winner Oobamburma, and Danon Touchdown, who will be participating in the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas).
It's hard to get a handle on which horse is favored to win based on the different types of races that the horses competed in their previous races, such as trial races, the Satsuki Sho, and the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas).
One thing to note is the experience of the horses in mile G1 races. Of the past 10 winners, 5 horses ran in the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes and 2 horses ran in the Oka Sho. The NHK Mile Cup is also likely to have a fast pace and a fast finish, making horses with mile G1 experience advantageous.
Horses that have finished in the top 4 in a mile G1 have a win rate of 20.0% and a place rate of 36.0% (excluding Basurado Reon, who was unable to race due to a fall in 2021). In particular, in the last five years, the win rate has increased to 27.3% and the place rate to 45.5%.
This year's contenders who meet the criteria are the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes winner Dolce More and runner-up Danon Touchdown. Although the winning time of the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes was average at 1:33.9, the pace was high with a first-half 3F time of 34.1-36.1. The experience gained from this race could be a significant advantage. Although both horses performed poorly in their previous races, they are expected to improve in their second race after a break.
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